15-Min ORB Strategy: Why Most Traders Lose (And How to Fix It)
Loses money
No edge after realistic trading costs
- trades tested
- 3,991
- per trade after costs
- -3.62bp
- winners
- 41%
- years of data
- 17.5
Mark the high and low of the first 15-minute candle after the New York open (9:30-9:45 ET); when a 15m candle closes above the range go long, when it closes below go short, stop on the other side of the range, target 1:1.5. The presenter shows it losing on gold and suggests adding higher-timeframe trend, fakeout re-entries and confirmation, without giving mechanical rules for those.
The exact rules we tested
- 01Instrument: XAUUSD | Signal timeframe: 15m | Direction: both
- 02Session: 09:30-16:00 (exchange tz), positions may hold overnight
- 03At most 1 trade(s) per day
- 04LONG when: [close > or.high] just became true this bar
- 05SHORT when: [close < or.low] just became true this bar
- 06Higher-timeframe inputs (closed-bar values only, no repaint): h1close on 1h, h1ema50 on 1h
- 07Entry: market at next bar open
- 08Stop: at the or.low (longs) / or.high (shorts) level
- 09Target: 1.5R (risk-multiple of stop)