Fibonacci One Candle Strategy (Backtested 1000 Times)
Loses money
No edge after realistic trading costs
- trades tested
- 1,714
- per trade after costs
- -1.88bp
- winners
- 35%
- years of data
- 14.7
Fib the previous daily candle high-to-low; during London/New York hours (outside 12pm-1am EST) buy the break of yesterday's high with the stop at the 0.8 level and target at 1.4 (2R), or sell the break of yesterday's low with stop at 0.2 and target at -0.4. A level breached outside trading hours is invalid; one trade per day, held until stop or target.
The exact rules we tested
- 01Instrument: EURUSD | Signal timeframe: 15m | Direction: both
- 02Session: 01:00-12:00 (exchange tz), positions may hold overnight
- 03No new entries after 12:00
- 04At most 1 trade(s) per day
- 05Long filter: (night.high < pd.high) AND (high < pd.high)
- 06Short filter: (night.low > pd.low) AND (low > pd.low)
- 07Entry: stop order at the break of pd.high (longs) / pd.low (shorts) (expires after 1 bars)
- 08Stop: at the stop_long (longs) / stop_short (shorts) level
- 09Target: 2.0R (risk-multiple of stop)
- 10Where rng = pd.high minus pd.low
- 11Where r02 = rng times 0.2
- 12Where stop_long = pd.high minus r02
- 13Where stop_short = pd.low plus r02