The Graveyard / Band reversal
FamilyBollinger or channel touches traded back toward the middle.
tested here
9
survived the screen
0
our lab studies
4
The idea
Price stretched to a band or channel edge snaps back toward the middle.
Why it feels right
Mean reversion is real at some scale, and a chart of a band touch followed by a return is the easiest picture in trading.
What the data said
0 of 888 cells survived a sealed screen across 21 markets: every over-extension detector (bands, RSI, distance from an average, streaks, big bars) combined in every way. The reversion exists and is smaller than the cost of trading it.
The toll (spread, commission, slippage, financing) is the biggest lever we have ever measured: lowering it from 2 to 0.55 basis points changed a strategy's result by more than any rule change. An edge that only exists below real costs is not an edge, and most intraday videos sit in that gap: positive gross, negative net.
Stacking filters cannot beat the square root of their summed strength, and every added filter costs a multiple-testing haircut. 888 combinations of over-extension detectors could not clear the toll together any more than alone.
Each row is a full autopsy: the exact rules, every trade, every control. Click one.
* dollars made or lost per trade on a $10,000 position, after trading costs. Green = a profit that passed our checks. Black = a profit we could not tell from luck. Grey = too few trades to trust.
Seen a video that says this one works? Run the autopsy.