Simple ICT Silver Bullet Strategy | 70% Win Rate
No better than luck
Small profit, too noisy to call an edge
- trades tested
- 3,072
- per trade after costs
- +0.51bp
- winners
- 39%
- years of data
- 14.7
ICT Silver Bullet on index futures: mark the Asian range (20:00-00:00 ET), London range (02:00-05:00 ET) and the 9 AM candle; if one of their highs/lows has been swept since midnight, trade the first 5-minute fair value gap that forms in the 10-11 AM ET window in the opposite direction (bearish FVG after a high sweep, bullish FVG after a low sweep). Limit order at the FVG, stop behind candle 1 of the FVG, target 2R or close by 4 PM ET.
The exact rules we tested
- 01Instrument: NQ | Signal timeframe: 5m | Direction: both
- 02Session: 10:00-16:00 (exchange tz), flat at session end
- 03No new entries after 11:00
- 04At most 1 trade(s) per day
- 05LONG when: gap.bull > 0
- 06SHORT when: gap.bear > 0
- 07Long filter: ([low < asia.low] on any of the last 120 bars) OR ([low < london.low] on any of the last 60 bars) OR ([low < nine.low] on any of the last 12 bars)
- 08Short filter: ([high > asia.high] on any of the last 120 bars) OR ([high > london.high] on any of the last 60 bars) OR ([high > nine.high] on any of the last 12 bars)
- 09Entry: limit order resting at gap.bull_top (longs) / gap.bear_bottom (shorts), fills when price comes to it (expires after 12 bars)
- 10Stop: at the c1low (longs) / c1high (shorts) level
- 11Target: 2.0R (risk-multiple of stop)
- 12Where c1high = high2 frozen at the last bar when gap.bear > 0
- 13Where c1low = low2 frozen at the last bar when gap.bull > 0